Economics

Trump’s Re-Election Now at the Mercy of a Slowing Economy

  • Economists polled see 35% chance of recession within a year
  • Downturns have damaged past presidents seeking re-election

Donald Trump on Aug. 13.

Photographer: Justin Merriman/Bloomberg
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The growing odds of a recession before the 2020 election threaten to crush President Donald Trump’s hopes of a second term.

Though still uncertain, such a scenario would be a political gift to Democrats, who have avoided talking about the nearly full employment, record stocks and low inflation so far in the Trump presidency.