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The Whole 2019 Rally Is at Risk in Wall Street’s Worst-Case Trade War Mock-Ups

  • Analysts see pain in equities ranging from 5% to much worse
  • The real hit for stocks will come from the profit impact
business briefcase solo
Photographer: Jordan Sirek/Bloomberg

A painful but orderly retreat in U.S. stocks will morph into something worse should an all-out trade war erupt between the U.S. and China, potentially threatening the entire 2019 recovery. So say certain worst-case Wall Street forecasts.

As Thursday’s ugly open in equities shows, Wall Street is coming to terms with the prospect of higher tariffs being imposed after midnight. Equities that rallied as much as 17.5% this year are down four straight days and headed for the worst week of 2019. Damage estimates are swirling.