U.S. Yield Curve Inverts for the First Time Since March
- Gap between 10-year and 3-month bill rates turned negative
- Move comes amid rising trade tensions between U.S. and China
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A part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve has inverted again, possibly foreshadowing an economic recession.
The yield on 10-year Treasury notes fell below the 3-month bill yield for the first time since March. Normally the spread is positive to compensate investors for inflation risk, so when it turns negative, it may herald an economic slump. This so-called yield curve inversion occurred earlier this year in March, hanging around for about a week before the premium for longer-dated debt was restored.