Patience, Bluster or Escalation: How Iran Might Respond to Trump

By ending waivers that allowed a handful of countries to continue importing oil from sanctioned Iran, the Trump administration hopes to force the Islamic Republic into submission by starving it of revenue. The U.S. wants to shrink Iran’s military strength and its footprint in Middle East conflicts. But it has also condemned what it calls a self-serving clerical elite and denounced restrictions on ordinary Iranians. How could Tehran respond to the growing pressure?

This has been Iran’s strategy since President Donald Trump withdrew the U.S. from the 2015 nuclear deal last May and unilaterally reinstated sanctions. Sustained by the support of European powers and oil sales permitted under the U.S. waivers, the government distributed subsidized goods to protect its poorest citizens from surging prices triggered by a currency crash in the hope of outlasting the Trump presidency, betting he may be defeated for re-election in 2020.