Economics
Recession Risks Creep Beyond Yield Curve Into U.S. Data
- As bond market sees downturn, data show a more mixed picture
- Economy begins year on softer footing, job market still solid
This article is for subscribers only.
As the bond market’s yield curve flashes warning signs of a U.S. recession, some key economic indicators are offering more conflicting signals about the outlook.
Recent government and private data show weakness from housing to retail sales and consumer sentiment, prompting a more dovish tone from the Federal Reserve and pushing rates traders to price in a good chance of an interest-rate cut this year. The more downbeat signs also have economists cutting estimates of fourth-quarter gross domestic product and projecting a weaker start to this year.