Economics

Wall Street’s Got It All Wrong When It Comes to the U.S. Bond Market

  • Prognosticators may be misinterpreting decline in term premium
  • The sky might not be falling after all, contrary to doomsayers

People walk by the New York Stock Exchange on March 7. 

Photographer: Spencer Platt/Getty Images North America
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What, exactly, is the bond market telling us?

It’s an age-old question on Wall Street, but one that’s gained newfound urgency as the topsy-turvy markets leave everyone wondering where the U.S. economy is headed. Yet to a small but growing number of analysts, academics and former policy makers, the standard answers may not apply.