Confidence Busted. Consensus Broken. And a Rally Like Few Others

  • Gains across risk assets belie a market riddled with doubt
  • Even the ‘most-crowded’ trade is weakest consensus since 2016
Photographer: John Taggart/Bloomberg
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Beneath the sea of green in risk assets right now is a rippling tide of doubt and anxiety.

On the surface, the picture is approaching perfect. The S&P 500 Index, off to its best start since 1987, just posted a fourth weekly gain. It’s up 13 of 17 days since Christmas and the moves are being matched step-for-step by global stocks. Volatility keeps receding. Commodities and emerging-market equities have surged. Leveraged loans advanced again. High-yield bonds did, too.