Why So Much Is at Stake in Nigeria’s Elections

Almost every Nigerian vote since independence in 1960 has been dogged by varying degrees of conflict and allegations of rigging. That’s one reason why the 2015 election that saw Muhammadu Buhari, now 76, become the first candidate in the nation’s history to topple a sitting president through the ballot box was such a watershed moment. But the former military ruler has presided over four years of lackluster growth and fallen short on a pledge to quell rampant corruption. His critics nicknamed him “Baba Go-Slow” --- a reference to his age and sluggish response to crises. His bid for a second term has now been set back by one week, to Feb. 23, when he will face dozens of rivals, the most prominent being Atiku Abubakar, 72, a wealthy businessman, former vice president and alleged kleptocrat of international repute, who failed on several previous occasions to secure the presidency.

The electorate’s biggest gripes are about a lack of jobs and economic opportunities, falling living standards and high inflation. The unemployment rate hit 23.1 percent in the third quarter, its highest since at least 2010, and the World Bank estimates that almost half the population of 200 million live on $1.90 or less a day. The economy is still smaller on a per-capita basis than it was in 2014, and the stock market has been the world’s worst performer since Buhari came to office, falling almost 50 percent in dollar terms. Endemic corruption is another major concern, as is insecurity typified by conflict with Islamist militants in the northeast, perennial violence in the oil-rich Niger delta and escalating tensions over grazing rights. Then there are questions about the vote itself. On Jan. 25, Buhari suspended the nation’s top judge, heightening concerns about the credibility of the election because the Supreme Court would likely have to rule on any challenges to the result.