China’s Debate Over a Shrinking Birth Rate Highlights Growth Concerns

  • Report sees decline three years earlier than previous estimate
  • Figures underscore concerns about long-term economic growth

Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg

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A top Chinese research institution projectedBloomberg Terminal the population could start shrinking as soon as 2027 -- three years earlier than expected -- underscoring growth concerns in the world’s second-largest economy.

A report by the state-run Chinese Academy of Social Sciences said the country’s population would start declining within eight years if the birth rate held steady at 1.6 children per woman. The population -- at 1.39 billion in 2017, and the world’s largest -- could fall to 1.172 billion by 2065, according to the report released on Thursday.