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From Bloomberg Opinion

Not Even Hindsight Could Have Helped You Make Money This Year

Investors faced rocky markets in stocks, bonds, commodities, and crypto.

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Illustration: George Wylesol for Bloomberg Businessweek

Every December, I visit the managers at Hindsight Capital LLC, an imaginary hedge fund that always invests with the best possible strategy for beating the market—in hindsight. These managers live in a world perpetually 12 months in the future; the only limit to their trading ability is that they must explain why their trades could have been foreseen 12 months in the past.

Usually this is a fun exercise that reveals surprising truths about the market, and Hindsight cleverly finds ways to double or triple its money. This year, however, was a tough one even for Hindsight. Almost nothing—not stocks, not bonds, not commodities, and certainly not crypto—made money.