Pimco Sees ‘Flashing Orange’ U.S. Recession Signal as Cycle Ages
- Chance of U.S. downturn 30% in next 12 months, a 9 year high
- Bond giant overseeing $1.7 trillion issues economic outlook
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U.S. growth will slow and the risks of a recession climb in 2019 as the near-decade-long economic cycle ages, according to Pacific Investment Management Co.
“The probability of a U.S. recession over the next 12 months has risen to about 30 percent recently and is thus higher than at any point in this nine-year-old expansion,” Pimco economist Joachim Fels and Andrew Balls, global fixed-income chief investment officer, wrote in an outlook released Thursday. “Even so, the models are flashing orange rather than red.”