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Four Ways Merkel’s Rule Could End

How long can she survive as Germany’s chancellor?

Views Of Berlin's Reichstag Building
Photographer: Krisztian Bocsi/Bloomberg

After shaking up German politics by announcing her departure as Christian Democratic Union leader in October, Angela Merkel said she’s prepared to serve out her fourth term as chancellor through 2021.

But her decision to hand over her party job is a sign of her diminishing sway and she’ll have to dodge a number of obstacles to survive another three years. Carsten Nickel, a London-based analyst at political-risk consultant Teneo, rates her chances at just one-in-three.