Battered Mortgage Sector May Be Set for a Performance Turnaround
- Option-adjusted spreads have widened over 20 basis points YTD
- BofAML and JPM have moved to overweight, citing valuations
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In terms of excess return versus Treasuries, the performance of mortgage securities since September provided fixed-income investors little to brag about over the holiday dinner table. All of this begs the question -- have mortgages cheapened enough for a turnaround?
This sub-par performance has seen the Fannie Mae 30-year current coupon option-adjusted spread widen to near two-year highs, currently at around 30 basis points, up from a paltry eight at the end of 2017. In addition, its current coupon yield over that of the 5-year/10-year Treasury blend now offers the largest pickup since April 25, 2017.