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We’re Reaching Peak Christmas and Retail Investors Are Jittery

Strong chains like Walmart, Best Buy are poised to succeed at the expense of the weak.

An employee pushes a trolley with a Vizio Inc. high-definition television (HDTV) at a Target Corp. store on Black Friday in Dallas, Texas, on Friday, Nov. 24, 2017.

Photographer: Bloomberg/Bloomberg
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The bull case for a monster U.S. holiday-shopping season is overwhelming: Consumer confidence is sky high. Median wages are on the rise. Households are wealthier than a year ago thanks to continued gains in the stock market and home values.

All this has led to a variety of researchers and trade groups calling for retail sales in stores and online to grow by about 5 percent—or more. That could make it the best Christmas shopping season in recent memory, likely topping last year’s robust growth and mirroring the frenzy of the mid aughts when home-equity loans fueled a spending binge, according to Ken Perkins, president of researcher Retail Metrics.