There’s Not Much Evidence That Rain on Election Day Helps Predict the Winner
- There’s little data backing adage that rain lifts Republicans
- Dark clouds can bringing out electoral fears, researcher says
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Rain is drenching much of the U.S. East Coast as voters head to the polls Tuesday. But it’s unclear whether that gives either political party an edge.
The adage that foul weather discourages Democratic turnout and, hence, helps Republicans doesn’t have much evidence to back it up, according to several academic papers including a 2007 study published in The Journal of Politics. Rain reduces voter participation by less than 1 percent per inch (2.5 centimeters), the study found. Thanks to early voting, more than 35 million Americans have already cast ballots this year, and weather won’t affect them at all.