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Long-range Forecast

This FX Veteran Predicts the Dollar Will Plunge

Ulf Lindahl, who hedges foreign exchange risk for pension funds and family offices in the U.S. and Europe, forecasts a decline of 40 percent against the euro by 2024. Here's why. 

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The biggest currency trade in the world can fit on an index card, according to a 40-year veteran of the foreign exchange market.

Ulf Lindahl, chief executive officer of A.G. Bisset Associates LLC, predicts the dollar will plunge about 40 percent against the euro by 2024. The currency manager’s reasoning is straightforward—since the 1970s, the dollar has been repeating a 15-year cycle of losses and gains, and the pattern is replaying now. To some, Lindahl’s call may seem outlandish and his reasoning overly simple. But after last year’s 9 percent slide—and with Bridgewater ­Associates’ Ray Dalio in September predicting a dramatic dollar drop—Lindahl’s view may not be as far out as it once appeared.