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The Next U.S. Recession Is Moving Further Away
The probability of an economic downturn in next year continues to drop
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The U.S. employment report is out, showing once again that the labor market is motoring along. Markets have responded by pushing further in a bullish direction, according to a Bloomberg model that looks at Treasury yields, the S&P 500 Index, the U.S. Dollar Index and West Texas Intermediate crude prices to predict the start of the next recession. The probability of a recession occurring in the next 12 months continues to drop, and should the bear steepening extend further, it might be quite some time before we have to talk about the next downturn.