Outside groups have begun saturating the airwaves with ads in the fight over Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation. In some, they’re targeting undecided senators. In others, undecided voters.

The biggest spender on ads since Ford’s allegations broke is the Judicial Crisis Network, a nonprofit that has spent about $12 million so far supporting Kavanaugh’s nomination, according to a Bloomberg review of ad spending data. The group ran four different ads, including a spot titled “It Never Happened,” on national cable programs, spending $330,590.

The group has also started running digital ads in North Dakota and West Virginia, two states President Donald Trump carried in 2016 where Democratic senators Heidi Heitkamp and Joe Manchin are up for re-election. In Montana, Matt Rosendale faults Democrat Jon Tester for voting for President Barack Obama’s high court picks and opposing Trump’s.

Republican Josh Hawley in Missouri has made the court fight central to his campaign. In a clear allusion to the ongoing controversy around Kavanaugh and sexual assault allegations, Hawley’s latest spot accuses incumbent Claire McCaskill and Democrats of creating a “circus” around the nomination. “They don’t want the truth,” he says of Democrats, “they only want power.”

The bulk of the television spending has been in Maine, the home state of Republican Senator Susan Collins, who is a key vote in determining the outcome of Kavanaugh’s confirmation. Since Ford’s allegations were first published in the Washington Post on Sept. 16 through Monday, outside groups have spent $653,060 in Maine, with some addressing the issue head on and others obliquely, according to data from Kantar Media’s CMAG, which tracks political advertising.

Republicans enjoy a slim majority in the Senate, with Vice President Mike Pence able to break a tie. Two Republicans voting against confirmation would block Kavanaugh from the court. Collins, along with Senators Jeff Flake of Arizona and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, hasn’t committed to confirming Kavanaugh. Murkowski isn’t up for re-election this year, and Flake is retiring after his term ends this year.

While those three lawmakers aren’t on the ballot, many in their states are. Ads in Maine will be seen by voters in the 2nd congressional district, who have to decide whether to return vulnerable Republican Representative Bruce Poliquin to the House next year. And in Arizona, the winner of the toss-up race for the seat Flake is vacating could tip control of the Senate entirely.

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Balance of Power

GOP Sen. Joni Ernst said on the Hugh Hewitt show that Democrats running for re-election in red states will have a tough time winning if they vote against Kavanaugh.

• “If they do not support Judge Kavanaugh, you know, if they are willing to stand up and say it’s okay to be torn down and accused of horrendous actions and get away with that, I think they’re gone”

Trump is gambling that support for Kavanaugh will drive Republican voters to the polls in November and save his party’s control of Congress.

Michael Bloomberg is giving $20m to a super PAC aligned with Senate Democrats, which could add momentum to that party’s bid to take over the Senate majority with just over a month before the election, Washington Post reported.

• Michael Bloomberg is the founder and majority owner of Bloomberg News parent Bloomberg LP

Senate

AZ-SEN: Democrat Kyrsten Sinema leads Republican Martha McSally 45%-42% with 11% undecided, Suffolk University/Arizona Republic poll.

• Sen. Jon Kyl, a former senator who was appointed to former Sen. John McCain’s seat after his death, featured in new ad for McSally
• Kyl says in ad, “If you’re interested in results rather than resistance, and progress rather than protests, join me in voting for Martha McSally”

FL-SEN: Florida’s Senate race remains virtually tied, with Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson edging Republican Gov. Rick Scott 45% to 44% in a WCTV-TV poll of 800 likely voters from September 17-30 with a +/- 3.5 ppts error margin.

NJ-SEN: Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez leads pharmaceutical executive and Republican candidate Bob Hugin by 11 percentage points, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll that’s meaningfully better for the Democratic incumbent than other recent surveys.

• Menendez up six in a separate survey -- 37%-32% among registered voters and 43%-37% among likely voters -- according to Fairleigh Dickinson poll; 29% of registered voters say they are undecided
• Stockton University poll from Monday showed dead heat in race, with Menendez leading Hugin 45%-43%

NV-SEN: Republican Gov. Brian Sandoval featured in new ad for incumbent Dean Heller.

NY-SEN: Democratic incumbent Kirsten Gillibrand holds a commanding 61%-29% lead over Republican opponent Chele Farley, according to Siena College poll.

TN-SEN: Americans for Prosperity Action, a super PAC that’s part of the Koch political network, said Wednesday it would spend $2m on television advertising in Tenn. to boost the Senate campaign of Rep. Marsha Blackburn.

House

Top House Democrat Nancy Pelosi and Hillary Clinton are headlining separate Manhattan fundraisers on Oct. 15 for Democratic House candidates, CNBC reported.

CA-22: Democrat Andrew Janz announced he raised $4.3m in his bid to unseat Republican Devin Nunes, Politico reported.

• Sum would be staggering for any House race, but is especially so because it’s not considered a competitive race by more election handicappers

CA-49: Democrat Mike Levin raised $2.2m and has $1.4m in bank: Politico; Levin seeking to replace retiring Rep. Darrell Issa.

IL-06: Democrat Sean Casten, the clean-energy businessman challenging incumbent GOP Rep. Peter Roskam, announced that he raised $2.6m: Politico.

MD-06: David Trone, the Potomac Democrat seeking to succeed Rep. John Delaney, declared himself “cancer-free” Tuesday and said that he has resumed campaigning nearly three weeks after undergoing surgery, Washington Post reports.

• Trone said the operation to remove his kidney was a “success” and said his recovery “is going very well”

MN-03: Democrat Dean Phillips leads incumbent Republican Congressman Erik Paulsen 49%-44%, according to a KSTP/SurveyUSA poll.

• 8% remain undecided; 38% of likely voters approve of Trump’s job performance, 56% disapprove

PA-01: Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick holds 50%-46% lead among likely voters over Democrat Scott Wallace in Pa.’s competitive 1st congressional district race, according to a Monmouth University poll.

Governors

AZ-GOV: Republican Gov. Doug Ducey leads Democrat David Garcia 50%-38% in Suffolk University poll.

FL-GOV: Democrat Andrew Gillum holds a narrow lead over Republican Ron DeSantis of 45% to 44% with a +/- 3.5 ppts error margin in a Mason-Dixon poll of 815 likely voters from Sept. 24-27.

MI-GOV: Democrat Gretchen Whitmer has an ad attacking her Republican opponent Bill Schuette over his stance on pre-existing conditions; ad features Whitmer talking about her mother’s battle with brain cancer.

Campaign Finance

The Congressional Leadership Fund, the top super PAC backing Republican efforts to hold the House, said Wednesday it raised $40m during the third quarter; the group said it has raised $132m so far this election cycle, compared to $51m for the entire 2016 cycle.

The DCCC filed an $11m independent expenditure disclosure with the Federal Election Commission outlining its latest spending plans for AZ-02, CA-10, CA-25, CA-45, CA-48, CO-06, FL-26, IA-03, IL-06, IL-13, KS-02, KY-06, ME-02, MN-02, OH-01, MI-08, NC-02, NJ-07, NM-02, NV-03, NV-04, NY-19, NY-22, PA-01, PA-07, PA-16, TX-07, TX-32, VA-02, VA-10, WA-08, WV-03.

Also of Note

Minn. Democratic officials are asking Minneapolis police to review an ex-girlfriend’s allegations of domestic abuse against Rep. Keith Ellison, AP reported on Wednesday

• Ellison, who is running for Minn. attorney general, has denied allegations

— With assistance by John McCormick, and Korey Matthews