Chinese Pig Disease Could Impact Trade Talks, Analyst Says

African Swine Fever, which is currently spreading through northeastern China, has the potential to impact trade talks down the road if outbreaks of the deadly disease become widespread, according to Brett Stuart, founding partner of Global AgriTrends, a market intelligence firm focused on global agriculture.

It isn’t possible to predict with any certainty how the disease will spread -— there could be sporadic outbreaks with an insignificant national effect. But the density of hogs and the scale at which they are raised in China creates a serious risk, Stuart said. A widespread outbreak could lead to mass culling of hogs, and since imports represent about 3 percent of China’s pork consumption, even a 10 percent cull would have significant impacts on import needs.