Yield-Curve Inversion Imminent for Some, Long Way Off for Others
- Demand for duration drives predictions for quicker inversion
- Flatness shows skepticism economy can handle higher rates: TD
A pedestrian walks near the U.S. Treasury building in Washington, D.C.
Photographer: Andrew Harrer/BloombergThis article is for subscribers only.
For at least some analysts in the U.S. rates market, the question is not if the yield curve will invert, but when.
The Treasuries curve keeps hitting its flattest levels since 2007, making every intraday twitch seem ominous as inversion is widely considered a harbinger of recession. With U.S. growth still robust, few market watchers are calling for an economic downturn. But the momentum in the curve’s trend has inspired some forecasts that it will soon flip, which could undermine confidence in riskier assets.