The Trade War Has Sent the Yield Curve to Its Flattest Since 2007

  • Yield gap from 2 to 10 years hits narrowest since Aug. 2007
  • Some Wall Street firms start lowering 10-year yield forecasts
Photographer: Patrick T. Fallon/Bloomberg
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The Treasury curve just keeps getting flatter.

The gap between 2- and 10-year yields reached a fresh year-to-date low Monday, underscoring the Federal Reserve’s dilemma over what Chairman Jerome Powell has called the real perplexing question in the collapsing curve: how low long-term yields are. This reality is prompting several Wall Street firms to cut or questionBloomberg Terminal their year-end forecasts. Morgan Stanley’s rates team said Friday that the 2018 peak for 10-year Treasury yields is in the rear-view mirror.