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Who Loses in Asia If Trump Dents Trade? Not China

A U.S.-China trade war appears to have been averted. Even so, with China promising to reduce its surplus with the U.S., and protectionist pressures still simmering, it’s worth thinking about how weaker Chinese exports would hit Asia’s integrated supply chain. Based on the OECD’s Trade in Value Added database, analysis by Bloomberg Economics shows that gross domestic product growth of Asian economies would be reduced by 1.1 percentage points on average for every 10 percent drop in China’s exports. The impact on China would be more moderate, just a 0.3 percentage point cut to GDP growth.