There's a New Curve in Town and It's Flashing Red
- Private sector may give a more accurate signal for recession
- ‘We are entering dangerous territory’ on credit indicator
This article is for subscribers only.
The private sector may hold the real clues to recession risk.
While the flattening U.S. yield curve -- the difference between short- and longer-dated Treasuries -- has been closely-watched as a potential indicator of a looming contraction, investors might do better to watch a measure of the cost of private credit, according to Charles Gave of Gavekal Capital Ltd.