Forget 3%. That Amazing Bull Run in Treasuries Ended Years Ago

  • Fixation on yield levels obscures inflation’s toll on returns
  • The ugly truth is “you are not actually making money.”
Investors weigh the implications of the 10-year U.S. treasury yield finally reaching 3 percent.(Source: Bloomberg)
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Once again, the fate of the long-standing bull market in U.S. Treasuries hangs in the balance.

Last week, bond yields briefly broke above 3 percent for the first time since 2014. Prominent investors like Paul Tudor Jones and Ray Dalio say a full-on bear market is all but inevitable this time as rates rise and deficits grow. The die-hard bulls predictably insist the doomsaying will once again end in tears.