A Top Recession Indicator Makes a Lousy Sell Signal for Stocks
- Returns in bear-flattening scenario are positive on average
- MRA strategist sees bull steepenings as times to take cover
Is the Bull Market About to End?
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Federal Reserve officials and Wall Street are ramping up their warnings about an inversion of the Treasury curve. When long-term yields dip below shorter-term counterparts, it’s usually been a sign that a recession is nigh.
Equity investors, however, might want to be more worried about what happens when the gap between short- and long-term borrowing costs moves in the other direction.