Bad Omen for Markets From First Signs of Yield Curve Inversion

  • Forward curve for 1 month overnight indexed swap rate inverts
  • Fed policy mistake possibly being priced into market: JPMorgan

Bond Market May Be Impacted If Inflation Rises

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The forward curve of a closely watched proxy for the Federal Reserve’s policy rate has slightly inverted, signaling investors are either pricing in a mistake from central bankers or end-of-cycle dynamics, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.

The inversion of the one-month U.S. overnight indexed swap rate implies some expectation of a lower Fed policy rate after the first quarter of 2020, the bank’s strategists including Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, wrote in a note Friday.