Inflation Could Give ECB Summer Surprise With Rate Exceeding 2%

Upside inflation surprises have become a rare phenomenon in the euro area. Yet one may be in the cards for the European Central Bank just as it debates its next steps toward scaling back unprecedented support.

Christoph Weil, an economist at Commerzbank AG, predicts euro-area consumer-price growth will top 2 percent in the summer. Even though the jump would come primarily on the back of more expensive energy -- rather than the long-awaited pickup in goods and services -- it may still play into the hands of those policy makers in favor of finally announcing an end to asset purchases.