Economists Predict What Might Happen in the Italian Elections

Bloomberg survey of 15 economists conducted Feb. 2-7
Hung parliament at 38% probability, ’grand coalition’ at 33%

A cyclist passes through Piazza della Republica in Florence, Italy, on Friday, Sept. 22, 2017. U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May will use a speech on Friday in Florence to propose a period of transition after Brexit takes effect in March 2019, aiming to give certainty and clarity to companies worried about the looming split.Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg

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By Andre Tartar

February 16, 2018 at 3:00 AM UTC

This article is for subscribers only.

Italians head to the polls on March 4, but with a hung parliament the likeliest outcome, there’s a one-in-four chance they’ll be right back to where they started within a year.

Economists assigned a 38 percent probability of a hung parliament, followed by a one-in-three chance of a so-called “grand coalition” between the ruling Democratic Party of former prime minister Matteo Renzi and the more conservative Forza Italia, led by billionaire and four-time premier Silvio Berlusconi.