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These States Are Projected to Gain House Seats After 2020 Census

  • Northeast, Midwest expected to continue losing residents
  • Projections are based on short-term census population trends

States in the South and West will gain representatives in the U.S. House after the 2020 census at the expense of states in the Northeast and Midwest, as the U.S. population continues a decades-long shift, according to a study by Election Data Services Inc.

In all, 16 states may be affected by the once-a-decade congressional reapportionment, according to the estimates, which are based on data from 2016 to 2017 and projected forward to 2020. Arizona, Colorado, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon are each expected to gain a single seat while Texas and Florida would gain two seats.

After the 2020 congressional delegation apportionment, Florida is projected to have a larger delegation than New York, with 29 seats compared to New York’s 26. They currently each have 27. New York peaked at 45 seats after the 1940 Census.

Single-seat losses may occur in Alabama -- the lone southern state among the losers -- Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and West Virginia.

The number of House seats is capped at 435. Each state has two U.S. senators and at least one House seat, regardless of population. Election Data Services Inc. cautions users to take the projections as preliminary and subject to change.

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