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Treasury Market's China Tailwind Is Fading at the Wrong Time

  • U.S. issuance set to rise to finance Fed taper, budget gaps
  • Yet a stable yuan suggests China demand for Treasuries may ebb
Pedestrians walk past the People's Bank of China headquarters in Beijing.

Pedestrians walk past the People's Bank of China headquarters in Beijing.

Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg
Updated on

China’s appetite for Treasuries may be about to ebb just as America needs its biggest foreign creditor to step up and help finance a growing budget deficit. U.S. borrowing costs could rise as a result.

In the view of Wells Fargo, this year’s resurgence in Chinese buying of Treasuries is likely to peter out as the yuan stabilizes after a steep gain in 2017. Most analysts see little change in the yuan through 2018, from its current level of around 6.62 per dollar. A steady exchange rate suggests limited pressure on Chinese authorities to increase their Treasury holdings as part of intervening in currency markets.