Guggenheim Sees Recession as Soon as Late 2019 Amid Rising Risks
- Next recession likely to begin in about two years, report says
- Returns can continue to be strong next year before declining
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Stocks generally rally two years out from a recession before declining in the final year, and it looks like the current U.S. expansion could end as soon as late 2019, according to Guggenheim Partners.
Near-term recession risk is low, but longer-term risks are rising, according to a recent report from the investment firm, which manages more than $290 billion. Returns can remain strong in 2018 but investors should prepare to turn defensive in a year’s time, positioning for widening credit spreads and falling equity valuations, said authors including global chief investment officer Scott Minerd.