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relates to Germany Moves to Shutter Bars and Restaurants for One Month relates to Bank of Canada Sees Output Gap Persisting Until 2023 relates to S&P 500 Drops 2%, Europe Sinks to Five-Month Low: Markets Wrap relates to Zambia Secures China Debt Relief Before Key Bondholder Vote relates to Homes Are Still Selling Like It’s Summer Across Much of the U.S. relates to Deutsche Bank Rebound Hinges More Than Ever on Trading Unit relates to Faced with Surging Debt, South Africa Sticks to Borrowing Plans relates to Highlights of South Africa’s 2020 Medium-Term Budget relates to New Europe Lockdowns Raise Prospect of ECB Stimulus Surprise relates to Bank of Canada Pares Back Bond Purchases, Shifts to Long End
relates to Germany Moves to Shutter Bars and Restaurants for One Month relates to Bank of Canada Sees Output Gap Persisting Until 2023 relates to S&P 500 Drops 2%, Europe Sinks to Five-Month Low: Markets Wrap relates to Zambia Secures China Debt Relief Before Key Bondholder Vote relates to Homes Are Still Selling Like It’s Summer Across Much of the U.S. relates to Deutsche Bank Rebound Hinges More Than Ever on Trading Unit relates to Faced with Surging Debt, South Africa Sticks to Borrowing Plans relates to Highlights of South Africa’s 2020 Medium-Term Budget relates to New Europe Lockdowns Raise Prospect of ECB Stimulus Surprise
Markets

What Slowdown? New Fed Gauge Shows Fastest Inflation Since 2007

What Slowdown? New Fed Gauge Shows Fastest Inflation Since 2007

  • ‘Underlying Inflation Gauge’ incorporates non-price variables
  • August reading was 2.74%, compared with 1.9% for U.S. CPI

Fed Keeps Faith in Inflation, Wages, Says Liberatore

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s first release Friday of its new measure to track underlying inflation -- called, appropriately enough, the Underlying Inflation Gauge -- shows prices behaving quite differently from traditional indexes this year. The UIG’s broad measure registered a 2.74 percent reading for August, the highest since November 2007, according to historical data from the Fed. That compares with a 1.9 percent annual change in the Labor Department’s consumer-price index and a 1.4 percent July gain in the preferred gauge of Fed policy makers, which matched the lowest since September 2016.

Why the gap? The UIG incorporates dozens of additional variables outside of prices, including the unemployment rate, stock prices, bond yields and purchasing managers’ indexes. A second, “prices-only” version of the UIG is derived from CPI data. That gauge advanced 2.2 percent in August. The New York Fed says the UIG “has shown more accurate forecasts of inflation compared with core inflation measures,” and the two UIG measures indicate that “trend CPI inflation” is currently in a range of 2.2 percent to 2.7 percent.

Underlying Inflation Gauge