Chinese Dragon Children Are a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy

Expectation can become reality, and child-rearing is a case in point.

Chinese parents’ belief that their kids should be successful because of their zodiac birth year seems to lead to better actual academic performance, and a look into that phenomenon leads off this week’s economic research wrap. We also run through research on China’s gas demand, a look at U.S. job expectations and career-climbing patterns, and a paper on how foreign ownership affects firm productivity in the U.K. Check this column every Tuesday for new and thought provoking research from around the world.

Chinese superstition says that children born during zodiac “dragon years” grow up to be successful – and it turns out, it’s true, according to a new National Bureau of Economic Research working paper from two Louisiana State University researchers. Parents appear to be trying to have kids during the special years, based on birth data. Children born during dragon years score higher on college entrance exams and are more likely to attain a college education versus their peers of a similar age but different zodiac year.

So should these kids thank their lucky stars? Probably not. Their better education outcomes might be driven by the fact that their parents have higher expectations of dragon children and invest more money in them, while putting more time into their education. “These expectations create this self-fulfilling prophecy,” the authors write. Interestingly, this isn’t a confidence story. The kids themselves don’t expect to be more skilled, based on survey responses.

Can Superstition Create a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy? School Outcomes of Dragon Children of China
Published August 2017
Available on the NBER website