Economics
Bond Traders Grope for Right Emerging-Market Recession Gauge
- Capital Economics says they don’t work to forecast recessions
- Mexico, Turkey have inverted curves but are expected to grow
JPMorgan's Mowat Sees New Upcycle for Emerging Markets
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A seemingly tried-and-true method for using the bond market to predict when recessions are likely to strike hasn’t been working in emerging markets.
Inverted yield curves -- when short-term bond yields rise above those for longer-term notes -- have occurred 30 times in major developing nations since 2005, but recessions followed on only five occasions, according to a study by Capital Economics. That goes against conventional wisdom that says inversion signals an economy ready to contract.