The Last Thing Kenya’s Economy Needs Is a Chaotic Election

For Ike Ochiango, who sells long-life milk to informal traders in Nairobi’s sprawling Kibera slum, Kenya’s Aug. 8 presidential election is bad for business. “People are not buying,” says the 26-year-old, as he takes a break from pulling his makeshift handcart laden with cartons along a rutted dirt road in the traffic-choked capital. “They are afraid of violence and that their shops will be looted.”

The fear is well-founded: Assassinations, intimidation, and gerrymandering have marred previous elections in the East African nation. The memory of an anarchic 2007 vote, and an ensuing killing spree in which at least 1,100 people died, is fresh in the minds of many Kenyans. This year’s campaign has also been fraught, with preparations behind schedule, the opposition up in arms over balloting procedures, and numerous clashes between rival political parties and the police. The prospect of renewed political turmoil poses further risks to an economy that was one of Africa’s top performers over the past decade, when growth averaged 5.2 percent a year. Now Kenya is contending with a crippling drought and rising government debt. Growth plummeted in the aftermath of the disputed election, to 1.7 percent in 2008 from 7.1 percent the year before. The government expects the economy to grow 5.5 percent in 2017.