Mystery Bond Trader Nets $10 Million on Treasury Strangle Gamble

  • A $10 million gamble on volatility pays off as yields decline
  • Wager encompassed inflation data miss and ECB decision

A woman walks past a statue of Albert Gallatin, the 4th Secretary of the U.S. Treasury, while entering the Treasury building in Washington, D.C.

Photographer: Brendan Smialowski/Bloomberg
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The unknown bond trader who placed a potentially record wager in the Treasury options market may have just netted a $10 million profit.

The $10 million worth of put and call options on 10-year Treasury futures that the trader purchased on July 11 expired Friday at 3 p.m. in New York. At expiry, the benchmark 10-year yield was about 2.23 percent, down about 15 basis points from when the so-called strangle trade was initiated. This kind of position gains value if there’s a major swing in prices in either direction. Futures prices rose to 126-10, representing profit of about $10 million for whomever made the bet, assuming they didn’t pare the position as it turned profitable.