Why China’s Two-Child Policy Shift Comes Too Late: QuickTake Q&A

China had been facing food and housing shortages in 1979 when its leader, Deng Xiaoping, decided to limit most couples to just one child. Over the following three decades, the economy expanded from $61 billion to $2.6 trillion (though some credit this to the loosening of state controls, not the sharp decline in population growth). Now, with China’s population set to peak in a little more than 10 years, the nation is facing a worker shortage. So last year the rules were changed to allow all couples to have two children. Trouble is, not many are taking the government up on the offer. This baby deficit could curtail China’s future growth and its ability to care for its aging population.

High living costs, long work hours and surging child-care expenses mean that many couples can only afford to have one child — or none. The number of newborns in 2016 was 17.9 million, the highest since 2010, even as the number of women of childbearing age was shrinking. While the country’s top health authority expects that this number will continue to grow in the next few years, it fell short of what policy makers expected from the reform.