Ruble Set for New 2017 High as Bears Quelled at Familiar Hurdle

  • 100-day moving average limits ruble losses yet again
  • EM currencies look past political noise in Brazil and U.S.

The ruble may be braced for fresh gains, with charting patterns pointing to a move to a new 2017 high versus the dollar, after Russia’s currency regained its composure at the medium-term value line.

The falling 100-day moving average, currently at 58.15, capped last week’s risk-off fueled rally in the dollar, with Friday’s bearish day on the dollar-ruble cross confirming the top of the counter-trend cycle. The 100-day moving average had in early May also curtailed the bullish dollar crusade, which goes to show the appetite to fade declines in the ruble as the pair reverts back to medium-value prices.

Broader EMFX complex has reinstated the appreciating trend versus the greenback, brushing aside political tensions in both Brazil and the U.S. that initially dragged emerging-market assets lower last week.

Dollar-ruble support located at 56.16 and 55.72 and then 53.30, where the 200-week moving-average is positioned; resistance at 57.36 and 58.14, with a daily close above the latter serving to question the upside outlook on the ruble.

  • Sejul Gokal is a technical strategist who writes for Bloomberg. The observations he makes are his own and are not intended as investment advice
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