U.K. Forecasters Say May's Tories Heading for Election LandslideBy
Betting and prediction models point to majority of 130
Prime minister trying to play down victory expectations
Theresa May’s Conservative Party is heading for a landslide win in Britain’s June 8 election, according to a survey of different forecasting methods.
Betting markets and prediction models all point to the Conservatives getting around 390 seats in the House of Commons, giving May a majority of 130, the ElectionsEtc blog reported. The expectation is that almost all of those seats would come from the main opposition Labour Party, with the Liberal Democrats gaining few and the Scottish National Party losing a handful, it said.
While such a result would represent a triumph for May, she has taken every opportunity to talk down expectations, even buying newspaper advertisements reminding readers of past electoral upsets, in an effort to motivate voters. Opposition parties, meanwhile, are focusing their message on questions of how best to reduce a Conservative majority and limit the prime minister’s power.
“It will be very hard for them to be held to account in the House of Commons,” Tom Watson, deputy leader of the Labour Party, told the Guardian on Friday. “It means there won’t be usual checks and balances of democracy.”
Michael Ashcroft, a former Conservative Party treasurer who is spending some of his fortune on polling, on Friday forecast a Conservative majority of between 162 and 180, depending on turnout, based on a sample of 40,000 people -- 20 times the size of the usual U.K. poll. May’s government has only a 10-seat cushion over combined opposition parties in the current parliament.