Investors Just Want Turkey's Referendum Done With: Scenarios
- Relief rally may be short-lived if Erdogan gets power he seeks
- Focus will switch to fundamentals, early elections either way
Turkey's Simsek Sees Referendum as Catalyst for Closure
On April 16, Turks will vote “yes" or “no" on a proposal to reshape Turkey’s democracy by abolishing the post of prime minister and handing President Recep Tayyip Erdogan sweeping executive powers. Investors are struggling to see much upside in either result.
The vote comes on the heels of a difficult start to the year that’s seen Turkey’s lira drop to record lows, its central bank take more unorthodox steps to buoy markets, and government efforts to tempt voters and kick-start a slowing economy. While the changes to Turkey’s politics will be transformational if the package is approved, it’s less clear how it would alter the nation’s economic trajectory. Pollsters have reported too many undecided voters to try to accurately forecast the result.