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50% Chance Trump Will Start Trade War With China: Loomis Sayles

  • Sees a ‘50-50’ chance U.S. could start trade war with China
  • Loomis Sayles ‘very cautious’ on emerging market debt
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What Trump's Trade War with China Would Look Like

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There is a 50 percent chance Donald Trump could start a trade war with China, raising investment risks across emerging markets this year, according to Loomis Sayles & Co.

The threat of a trade spat between the world’s two biggest economies is “quite real” as the U.S. president pledges to protect American industry, said Lynda Schweitzer, vice president and portfolio manager at the investment firm that oversees $240 billion. While a clash isn’t a certainty, the chance has “got to be 50-50,” prompting the company to stay lukewarm toward emerging market debt investments, she said.