Is the Fed Behind on Tightening? Watch This Inflation Indicator
- Construction, manufacturing resurgence may lift June hike odds
- Watch effect of jobs data on market measure of inflation risk
This article is for subscribers only.
With investors already banking on the Federal Reserve lifting interest rates next week, attention has shifted to whether the central bank has fallen behind in its quest to keep inflation from rising too quickly.
The answer will become clearer Friday when the February jobs report lands at 8:30 a.m. in Washington. While the reaction in fed funds futures will tell a large part of the tale, keep an eye on the spread between yields on five- and 10-year U.S. Treasury notes to gauge how investors are thinking about longer-term inflation risks.