Snap Tumbles for First Time Since IPO After Analysts Say Sell

  • Of seven analysts who cover the stock, none recommend buying
  • More glamorous the IPO, more likely for big fall, Needham says

Snap Fizzles as Shares Take a Beating for Second Day

After a euphoric market debut, Snap Inc. shares dropped for the first time in three days and fell below the opening price of $24 on their first day of public trading after analysts began weighing in with their thoughts on the company’s true valuation.

The parent company of disappearing-photo app maker Snapchat priced shares in its initial public offering last Wednesday and they surged 44 percent on the first day of trading. On Friday the stock climbed a further 11 percent. By Monday, five of the seven analysts who cover the company had a sell rating on it while two said hold.

No analyst recommends buying the stock, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Not all analysts are able to give their opinion on the stock yet, since those who work at banks involved in the IPO are prevented from doing so for a while.

Snap fell 12 percent to $23.77 at the close Monday in New York, valuing the company at about $28 billion.

"Academic literature suggests that the sexier and more glamorous a company’s IPO, the more likely it is to be overpriced at its IPO date and to suffer meaningful downwards earnings and valuation revisions in the first eight quarters after it goes public," wrote Laura Martin, an analyst at Needham & Co., in a note to investors. She said Snap’s value is more like $19 to $23 a share.

Martin explains her concerns about Snap Inc.

(Source: Bloomberg)

Snap, which began as a phone app for sending vanishing photos, has been building out its advertising and media business, reminding investors of the early days of Facebook Inc. and Google’s YouTube. But the company is still years away from profitability, with a net loss higher than its revenue. User growth on the app slowed in the fourth quarter, leading to skepticism about how big the company’s advertising business could be.

"We think they are going to be able to monetize and they’ve shown it but we don’t think it’s going to be as effective as the valuation is implying," said Ali Mogharabi, an analyst at Morningstar Inc. With the stock trading at around 32 times this year’s sales, “based on that, it’s overvalued right now.”

He rates the stock sell with a price target of $15.

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