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The Brexit Bank Exodus Could Be More Like a Trickle

  • 232,000 U.K. jobs could be at risk, or maybe only 4,000
  • Some say banks exaggerate potential moves to get concessions

Depending on who you talk to, 232,000 U.K. jobs will be headed out the door after Britain withdraws from the European Union. Or it could be as few as 4,000.

The range of forecasts -- from the apocalyptic vision of London Stock Exchange Group Plc Chief Executive Officer Xavier Rolet to the conservative estimate, from management consultants Oliver Wyman -- often says more about the interests of the people making them than the likely fallout from Britain’s divorce with the EU. As details of the banks’ contingency arrangements become clearer, the initial people moves they are planning are said to be more in the hundreds than the thousands.