Investors Are Waking Up to the Risk of a Le Pen Victory
- Implied volatility on German bunds is holding near the lows
- Investors are the most bearish on the euro since June
Are Markets Prepared for a Marine Le Pen Victory?
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Investors are just about waking up to the risk of Marine Le Pen emerging victorious in the French election, some early bets in the options market show.
While a Le Pen win is still seen as a tail risk and the first round of the election is still more than two months away, the unexpected outcomes of last year’s votes in the U.K. and the U.S. have raised investor awareness of political risk. The National Front candidate’s threat to take France out of the euro could call into question the fate of the common currency.