This Is How You Should Read French Election Polls
JPMorgan's Stubbs Sees Risk Rising in French Election
It’s been a tough run for political polling, leading some to view poll results with an extra dose of skepticism. That might be particularly appropriate in France. Its two-stage presidential election system, with multiple candidates appealing to a highly divided electorate, makes interpreting polls something of an art. Especially as most focus on the first round, rather than the end result.
Marine Le Pen, head of the anti-immigrant, anti-European Union National Front, and centrist independent Emmanuel Macron are the front-runners, with most polls showing Le Pen slightly ahead. The Bloomberg composite poll-of-polls on April 10 had Le Pen at 24 percent and Macron at 23 percent. It’s a similar tie for third place. Francois Fillon of the center-right Republicans was at 19 percent and far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon at 18 percent.