To Understand Europe’s Political Tremors, Take a Look at Italy

To get a sense of Europe’s political weather, take a look at Italy: For the past century, it’s served as a barometer of the continent’s mood. In the 1920s, Mussolini’s fascism presaged Hitler and the Nazis. In the ’70s, Italy’s extreme left- and right-wing terrorist movements heralded armed groups in the rest of Europe. Curious about the future of a country run by a media-savvy billionaire with hair issues? Check out how Silvio Berlusconi destroyed traditional parties with TV slogans, anti-Establishment rhetoric, and garish displays of wealth.

That’s why Europe will closely watch a Dec. 4 referendum over arcane details of Italian parliamentary procedure. The ballot could indicate whether the populism sweeping the world (think Brexit and Trump) is still ascendant or poised to abate. “Italy is like a seismograph,” says Marc Lazar, a professor at Sciences Po University in Paris. “It registers tiny political tremors that then spread to Europe and the rest of the world as bigger shocks.”