China May Face Yuan Float if Capital Controls Fail

  • Debt makes higher rates difficult for China’s policy makers
  • Party preference for control makes major reform unlikley: Shih

Yuan Outlook: Expect More Volatility?

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Dollar strength and rising U.S. interest rates under President-elect Donald Trump would intensify pressure on capital outflows from China, forcing its policy makers to choose between tightening capital controls or a drastic floating of the currency in coming months.

That’s according to Victor Shih, a University of California at San Diego professor who studies China’s government and finance and specializes in tracking politics at the most elite level.