Final Polls Show Renzi’s Referendum Heading for Defeat in Italy

  • ‘No’ consistently ahead before Dec. 4 nationwide vote
  • Negative result could hinder Premier Renzi’s political future

Prodi: Italy's Strength Not Dependent on Referendum

The final rush of public opinion polls before Italy’s referendum next month showed voters are leaning toward turning down the constitutional reforms.

Four polls published Friday showed the “No” camp in the lead, in a trend that has been predominant for several weeks.

As of Saturday, there will be a blackout period making it illegal to publish public opinion polls on the Dec. 4 vote.

Prime Minister Matteo Renzi has promised to quit if voters reject the referendum reforms, which he says would streamline Italy’s government decisions.

RAI 3 Television

About 62 percent of Italians say they will vote, 27 percent won’t vote and 11 percent don’t know, according to a poll conducted on Nov. 16 by Ixe for Agora-Rai3 television program. While the “Yes” vote was unchanged at 37 percent from the previous week, the “No” is up to 42 percent from 40 percent previously. The poll was based on responses from 1,000 potential voters, and had a margin of error of plus/minus 3.1 percent.

La Repubblica

A poll conducted by Demos & Pi for newspaper La Repubblica on 1,231 people from Nov. 14-16 shows that the gap between the two sides widened from the previous month, with the “No” at 41 percent and the “Yes” side at 34 percent. The share of those who were undecided or didn’t respond was at 25 percent. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.1 percent.

La Stampa

La Stampa reported the “No” camp in the lead by 8 points, according to a poll conducted by Istituto Piepoli on Nov. 14 and based on 500 interviews. While 54 percent of the polled would vote “No,” 46 percent would be in favor of the reform. The newspaper did not provide a margin of error for the poll.

Corriere della Sera

About 55 percent of those who plan to head to the polls would reject the reform, while 45 percent would back it, according to a survey conducted by Ipsos on 997 people between Nov. 14 and 15. Almost a third of the population has only vaguely heard about the content of the reform. No margin of error was given.

Here is a quick take of the Italian Dec. 4 vote.

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