Parsing the Fed, U.K. Outlook, Homes: Week Ahead Nov. 19-26

  • Tyson, Hewlett-Packard release earnings; OPEC, APEC Meetings
  • U.K.’s Hammond gives growth targets in key post-Brexit speech

Market participants will get their chance to parse the minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Nov. 1-2 policy meeting and gauge the eagerness of officials to raise interest rates in December, as markets widely expect. During her Congressional testimony on Nov. 17, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said a rake hike could be appropriate “relatively soon” as the U.S. economy continues to strengthen.

Sales of new and previously-owned U.S. homes probably probably eased in October while remaining close to a nine-year high. The sector’s outlook going into 2017 has turned uncertain amid a bond market sell-off following Donald Trump’s election victory and the spike in mortgage rates. The U.S. also will release data on durable goods orders, projected to show a pickup in demand.

U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond addresses Parliament with new growth and budget-deficit forecasts in his first opportunity to recast policy since the Brexit vote.

The Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Leaders’ Summit brings U.S. Presidents Barack Obama, Russia’s Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping of China and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to Lima.

OPEC’s high-level committee meets in Vienna to discuss the implementation of the Algiers oil-supply deal. In company news, Anthem Inc. begins its antitrust trial against the U.S. to defend its takeover of Cigna Corp.

Hewlett Packard Enterprises Co., Medtronic Plc, Tyson Foods Inc., GameStop Corp. and Remy Cointreau SA are among companies releasing earnings.

Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving, marks the traditional start to the U.S. holiday shopping season.

Rugby’s Autumn Internationals continue across Europe and the ATP men’s tennis finals conclude in London. The LPGA’s season-ending Tour Championship finishes on Sunday in Naples, Florida.

Saturday, Nov. 19

  • The Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit is held in Lima. This year’s theme is human capital development: education, labor, employment and innovation. Presidents Barack Obama, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping will attend, along with Facebook Inc. CEO Mark Zuckerberg and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Through Nov. 20.
  • Obama will meet with leaders of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) member countries on the margins of the APEC summit. Obama also will meet with Peru President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski. Timing to be determined.
  • China’s two richest men, Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. Chairman Jack Ma and Dalian Wanda Group Co. Chairman Wang Jianlin, will speak in Shanghai at the Bund Global Financial Summit, organized by billionaire Guo Guangchang’s Fosun International Ltd. Starts at 08:45 local time (11/18 19:45 EST).
  • Ministers and government officials from almost 200 nations wrap up two weeks of talks on climate change a year after the historic Paris pact. Donald Trump’s election in the U.S. has thrown the talks into a tailspin, after he vowed to pull the U.S. out of the accord.
  • Rugby’s Autumn Internationals continue, with Ireland taking on New Zealand, France playing Australia, and Argentina visiting Scotland among the highlights. Click here for the full schedule and match times.
  • The Barclays ATP World Tour Finals men’s tennis season finale continues in London with the semifinals. Champion Novak Djokovic is defending his title, with the No. 1 ranking at stake. The final takes place on Nov. 20. Click here for the schedule and match times.

Sunday, Nov. 20

  • French voters take part in the first ever primary election to choose the Republicans’ presidential candidate. City of Bordeaux Mayor Alain Juppe is the front-runner, ahead of former President Nicolas Sarkozy. The results are expected after 20:00 in Paris (14:00 EST).
  • Obama to give a solo news conference on the sidelines of the APEC Leaders’ Summit in Lima, Peru at 18:15 EST.
  • German Chancellor Angela Merkel and other leaders of her Christian Democratic Union party begin a two-day strategy meeting. Merkel may comment on whether she’ll run again as party leader, a decision that would indicate whether she’ll bid for a fourth term as head of the government. Starts at 13:00 in Berlin (07:00 EST).
  • U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond is interviewed on BBC Television’s politics program, the “Andrew Marr Show,” in advance of his end-of-year fiscal statement on Nov. 23. The program starts at 09:00 in London (04:00 EST).
  • Greek and Turkish Cypriot leaders are scheduled to resume reunification talks in Geneva. Timing to be determined.
  • The CME Group Tour Championship, the season-ending event for golf’s LPGA, wraps up in Naples, Florida. Click here for a leaderboard.

Monday, Nov. 21

  • Japanese PM Abe visits Buenos Aires where he will meet with Argentina President Mauricio Macri for a Japan-Argentina economic forum. The leaders will give a joint press conference in the afternoon. Timing to be determined.
  • The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ technical committee meets in Vienna to discuss the implementation of the Algiers oil-supply deal, finalized on Sept. 28, which would end a two-year policy of pumping without limits. Timing to be determined.
  • European Central Bank Governing Council members Luis Maria Linde of Spain and Francois Villeroy of France speak at the Financial Markets Association meeting in Madrid. About 13:30 (07:30 EST).
  • European Central Bank President Mario Draghi presents the ECB’s annual report to the European Parliament in Strasbourg. 17:00 (11:00 EST).
  • Anthem Inc. goes to trial against the U.S. to defend its $48 billion takeover of rival insurer Cigna Corp. The U.S. District Judge set the antitrust trial to conclude by Dec. 30 and the Justice Department says it’s open to settlement offers. In Washington.
  • New Bank of Japan board member Takako Masai will give her first speech since joining the board in June, from 10.30 in Saitama (11/20 20.30 EST).
  • Mexico Revolution Day is Mexico’s national holiday to commemorate the nation’s revolution. Equity and bond markets will be closed.

“Which One?” by Norman Rockwell

Source: Sotheby’s
  • A painting by Norman Rockwell depicting undecided voter sentiment during the 1944 presidential election between Democrat incumbent President Franklin D. Roosevelt and Republican candidate Thomas Dewey will be the highlight of Sotheby’s American art auction. The painting, called “Which One? (Undecided; Man in Voting Booth)” has a presale estimate of $4 million to $6 million. In New York City at 16:00 EST.
  • U.S. government bond auctions, Fed debt purchases. Click here for the schedule.
  • U.S. initial public stock offerings. Click here for the schedule.
  • CENTRAL BANKS: Ghana rate decision.
  • EARNINGS: Tyson Foods Inc. is among companies announcing earnings. For an expanded list of companies posting results today, click here.
  • ENERGY/COMMODITIES: Manitoba crop update (weekly), USDA grain export inspections and crop ratings (weekly), China releases data for LNG, gas, diesel, refined metals (Oct.), EU’s Monitoring Agricultural Resources unit publishes bulletin on crop weather, yield forecasts, pasture conditions (Nov.).

Here’s a list of today’s global economic releases:

COUNTRYDATACOUNTRYDATA
PeruGDP (3Q)Japantrade (Oct.)
TaiwanExport orders (Oct.)Nigeria GDP (3Q)
Thailand GDP (3Q)Turkeymonthly survey of expectations
Israelunemployment rate (Oct.) Poland industrial output (Oct.), retail sales (Oct.)

Tuesday, Nov. 22

  • Sales of previously owned U.S. homes were probably little changed in October, near a more than nine-year high, indicating demand remains elevated even with a limited number of listings. The National Association of Realtors will issue the figures at 10:00 in Washington.
  • The European Union’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs Federica Mogherini speaks on Syria at the European Parliament. 15:00 in Strasbourg (09:00 EST).
  • Obama will present 21 recipients with the Presidential Medal of Freedom, the U.S.’s highest civilian honor. The recipients this year include NBA stars Michael Jordan and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar; comedian Ellen DeGeneres and actors Robert De Niro, Tom Hanks and Robert Redford; singers Diana Ross and Bruce Springsteen, and philanthropists Bill and Melinda Gates. The event will be streamed live here from the White House. Timing to be determined.
  • CENTRAL BANKS: Brazil Central Bank current account report (Oct.), Nigeria rate decision, Hungary rate decision.
  • EARNINGS: HP Inc. is among companies posting results. For an expanded list of today’s releases, click here.

Here’s a list of today’s global economic releases:

COUNTRYDATACOUNTRYDATA
U.S.Richmond Fed manufacturing (Nov.)Canadaretail sales (Sept.)
South Africaunemployment (3Q)U.K.public finances (Oct.)
Hong Kong CPI (Oct.)
Turkeyconsumer confidence (Nov.)Ukraineindustrial output (Oct.)

Wednesday, Nov. 23

  • U.K. Chancellor Philip Hammond makes his Autumn Statement to Parliament. The end-of-year announcement of fiscal and economic measures will include new growth and budget-deficit forecasts. It’s his first opportunity to recast policy since his appointment in the wake of the Brexit vote. Shortly after 12:30 in London (07:30 EST).
  • Orders for U.S. durable goods are projected to advance in October amid a pickup in demand for capital equipment and commercial aircraft, Commerce Department data may show. 08:30 in Washington.
  • U.S. new-home purchases probably eased in October while remaining close to a nine-year high, indicating more measured progress in residential real estate, economists project the Commerce Department to report. 10:00 in Washington.
  • The Federal Reserve issues minutes from its monetary policy meeting in early November, when officials held the line on interest rates yet hinted that they would raise borrowing costs in December. 14:00 in Washington. Follow the TOPLive blog for real-time coverage here.
  • U.S. Secretary of Commerce Penny Pritzker joins U.S. Trade Representative Michael Froman for a U.S.-China Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade. The Chinese delegation is led by Vice Premier of the State Council Wang Yang. U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack will also participate. In Washington and open to the press from 07:50 EST.
  • Bavarian Premier Horst Seehofer, the leader of the CDU’s Christian Social Union sister party, briefs German media. Seehofer has been a vocal critic of Merkel’s refugee policy and his party has yet to give its support to her candidacy for a fourth term. 19:00 in Berlin (13:00 EST).
  • German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble and Peter Altmaier, Angela Merkel’s chief of staff, speak at a conference on the key themes of the 2017 federal election. Timings in Berlin to be determined.
  • Williams Cos. holds its annual meeting after it headed off a proxy fight with activist shareholder Corvex Management LP by announcing plans to overhaul its board. Keith Meister, managing partner at Corvex, had repeatedly blasted the pipeline owner’s board; he and five other directors resigned in July after failing to oust Williams CEO Alan Armstrong.
  • CENTRAL BANKS: Central Bank of Mexico quarterly inflation report, Malaysia rate decision.
  • EARNINGS: Deere & Co. will report its results. For an expanded list of today’s releases, click here.

Here’s a list of today’s global economic releases:

COUNTRYDATACOUNTRYDATA
U.S.MBA mortgage applications (weekly), jobless claims (weekly), FHFA home-price index (Sept.), Bloomberg consumer comfort index (weekly), Markit manufacturing PMI (Nov. prelim.), Michigan consumer sentiment (Nov. final)RussiaCPI (weekly)
BrazilIPCA-15 inflation (Nov.) MexicoGDP (3Q)
SingaporeCPI (Oct.)South AfricaCPI (Oct.)
Euro-areamanufacturing and services PMI (Nov. prelim.)

Thursday, Nov. 24

  • The U.S. celebrates Thanksgiving, the holiday Abraham Lincoln made official in 1863. Two turkeys from Storm Lake, Iowa, are on their way to the White House where they’ll receive Obama’s traditional Thanksgiving pardon. Follow their journey at #TurkeyPardon2016 on Twitter. Americans are expected to eat about 46 million turkeys during their traditional family feasts. U.S. equity and bond markets will be closed.
  • CENTRAL BANKS: Brazil Central Bank bank lending report (Oct.), South Africa rate decision, Turkey rate decision, Poland minutes.
  • EARNINGS: Beverage company Remy Cointreau SA is among companies posting results. For a list of today’s releases, click here.

Here’s a list of today’s global economic releases:

COUNTRYDATACOUNTRYDATA
Mexicobi-weekly CPI (Nov. 15)  
Hong Kongtrade (Oct.)JapanCPI (Oct.)
VietnamCPI (Nov.)South AfricaPPI (Oct.)
Turkeyreal sector confidence and capacity utilization (Nov.)Germany GDP (3Q), Ifo business confidence (Nov.)

Friday, Nov. 25

  • Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving, marks the traditional start of the U.S. holiday shopping season. Last year more than 151 million Americans said they went shopping, either in stores or online, over the holiday weekend, according to the National Retail Federation.
  • Jean-Sebastien Jacques, chief executive officer of Rio Tinto Group, will deliver a speech to the Melbourne Mining Club at 12:30 local time (11/24 20:30 EDT).
  • EARNINGS: Media company Naspers Ltd. is among companies reporting earnings. For an expanded list of today’s releases, click here.
  • ENERGY/COMMODITIES: USDA data on crop net-export sales (weekly), Alberta crop update (weekly).

Here’s a list of today’s economic releases:

COUNTRYDATACOUNTRYDATA
U.S.advance merchandise trade balance (Oct.), wholesale, retail inventories (Oct. prelim.), Markit services PMI (Nov. prelim.)U.K. GDP (3Q prelim.)
Taiwan GDP (3Q final)MalaysiaCPI (Oct.)

Saturday, Nov. 26

No scheduled events.

(Updates with Baker Hughes U.S. oil-and-gas rig count moved from Friday to Weds. Nov. 23, due to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. )

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